卖方Pierre Ferragu发布 2026/07/10 08:19· 入库 2026/7/11 00:00:42· Pierre Ferragu (@p_ferragu)
市场对FSD能力一无所知，特斯拉正接近iPhone式转折点
原标题：The vast majority of the market has no idea what FSD can do, and discovers it on…
精华摘要
分析师Pierre Ferragu指出，绝大多数市场参与者并不了解特斯拉FSD（全自动驾驶）的真正能力，只能逐步发现。与此同时，第一季度FSD净新增订阅量已超过特斯拉在美国的交付量，第二季度交付量也大幅超出预期。这些迹象可能预示着FSD正接近一个类似iPhone的转折点——当年iPhone的潜在市场仅1000万部，但人们意识到其优秀后，年销量已达近2.5亿部。
特斯拉的演变路径与iPhone相似：Model 3售价3.5万美元加每月100美元的FSD订阅，对多数人而言仍显昂贵，但一旦FSD能力被广泛认知，需求可能爆发。这暗示特斯拉的估值逻辑可能从汽车制造商转向软件服务商，FSD订阅收入将成为利润核心。若FSD渗透率提升，特斯拉的交付量增长和盈利能力将远超传统车企，对全球电动化进程和智能驾驶行业格局产生深远影响。
原文摘要
The vast majority of the market has no idea what FSD can do, and discovers it only progressively. At the same time, we see FSD net additions exceeding US deliveries (1Q), and Tesla massively beating on deliveries (2Q). It might be early signs of an inflection point. Remember when the addressable market of the iPhone was 10 million units? Then people realized how good it was, and now, nearly 250m are sold every year. A similar evolution for Tesla is still on the table. A Tesla is not a car, the same way an iPhone was not a phone. A model 3 at $35k + $100 per month is too expensive for mo