英文Gary Black发布 2026/05/15 13:51· 入库 2026/5/15 22:23:05· Gary Black (@garyblack00)
货币市场押注美联储2027年3月加息25基点，分析师称荒谬
原标题：Money markets now assuming a Fed funds rate HIKE of +25bp by March 2027, which s…
精华摘要
货币市场目前预计美联储到2027年3月将加息25个基点。知名投资人Gary Black认为这一预期荒谬，指出美国与伊朗的战争届时可能早已结束，且历史经验显示，布伦特原油价格会在9-12个月内回落至70美元/桶区间，类似2022年俄乌冲突后的走势。
Black批评许多投资者盲目外推当前环境，而未理性思考11月中期选举后的局势变化。该观点虽不直接涉及EV行业，但利率预期影响融资成本和消费者购车贷款，进而可能间接影响电动车需求。若加息预期落空，宽松货币环境或利好高成长行业如EV。
原文摘要
Money markets now assuming a Fed funds rate HIKE of +25bp by March 2027, which seems absurd given that the U.S.-Iran war will likely be long over by then and if history repeats, brent crude falls back to the $70/bbl range as it did in 2022 within 9-12 months after Russia invaded Ukraine. Too many investors are blindly extrapolating out the current environment rather than thinking logically through what happens next with midterm elections in November.