卖方Pierre Ferragu发布 2026/05/02 17:27· 入库 2026/5/13 23:29:07· Pierre Ferragu (@p_ferragu)
Model 3月租299美元，FSD仅100美元，利润翻5倍
原标题：Model 3 lease today, $299 per month. FSD: $100.
Assuming a prudent 8% profit m…
精华摘要
分析师Pierre Ferragu指出，特斯拉Model 3月租仅299美元，FSD选装价100美元。假设基础车型利润率8%，FSD可使单车利润直接提升5倍。目前FSD渗透率不足3%，未来还有5倍增长空间。若将模式迁移至Cybercab，每英里收入从0.35美元升至1美元，利润贡献从13美分增至65美分，再获5倍提升。
FSD作为特斯拉的核心差异化优势，具有高价值和高粘性，将持续推动市场份额增长和客户留存。投资者在给特斯拉估值时，若仅参照传统车企市盈率，需考虑FSD带来的利润乘数效应。Cybercab商业模式将彻底改变单车经济模型，使特斯拉从汽车制造商转型为高利润出行服务商。当前市场尚未充分定价这一潜力。
原文摘要
Model 3 lease today, $299 per month. FSD: $100. Assuming a prudent 8% profit margin on the former (base model), FSD multiplies profits by 5x, off the bat. FSD being unmatched, exceptionally high value and terminally addictive, it will drive sustained market share gains and retention. As we are still under 3%. Count another 5x potential. Then move the model to cybercab. From $0.35 revenue for Tesla per mile to $1, contribution to profits from 13 cents to 65, or another 5x. Conclusion. Those putting a multiple on Tesla based on auto compares should not forget they may need to multiply value