英文Gary Black发布 2026/09/01 13:56· 入库 2026/9/2 00:00:43· Gary Black (@garyblack00)
盈利修正主导成长股走势，特斯拉年内跌20%
原标题：Earnings revisions are the primary driver of growth stocks, whether $TSLA, $NVDA…
精华摘要
知名投资人Gary Black指出，盈利修正（Earnings revisions）是成长股的主要驱动因素，无论是特斯拉（TSLA）、英伟达（NVDA）还是其他成长股。以特斯拉为例，负面盈利修正已导致其股价年内下跌20%，而同期纳斯达克指数上涨15%。他进一步展示，特斯拉未来任何一年的盈利预期，当前都比1个月、3个月、6个月或12个月前更低。以2028年为例，当前特斯拉盈利预期为3.14美元，较1个月前低5%，较6个月前低15%，较12个月前低28%。
这一观点对投资者具有警示意义：特斯拉股价的疲软并非短期波动，而是市场对其长期盈利能力持续下修的反映。盈利预期的不断下调，可能源于全球竞争加剧、降价策略对利润率的侵蚀，以及需求增长放缓。对于EV行业而言，特斯拉作为龙头，其盈利预期的恶化可能预示行业整体面临价格战和利润率压力，投资者需关注其他车企是否出现类似趋势，并重新评估对EV板块的盈利预期。
原文摘要
Earnings revisions are the primary driver of growth stocks, whether $TSLA, $NVDA, $SKHY, etc. For $TSLA negative revisions have crushed the stock YTD (TSLA -20% YTD, NDX +15% YTD). Pick any year in the future. WS earnings ests for TSLA for that year are lower today than they were 1, 3, 6, 12 months ago. Here is 2028 as an example: Current TSLA earnings est of $3.14 is -5% below where it was 1 month go, -15% below where it was 6 months ago, and -28% below where it was 12 months ago. It’s clear to any unbiased observer that TSLA’s global competitors are all investing billions in unsuper