英文Gary Black发布 2026/09/04 18:08· 入库 2026/9/5 00:00:44· Gary Black (@garyblack00)
Gary Black：特斯拉1.3万亿美元市值对应200倍市盈率，多空僵持
原标题：I have never in my career seen a company with this high a market cap ($1.3 trill…
精华摘要
知名投资人Gary Black在社交媒体上表示，职业生涯中从未见过像特斯拉这样市值高达1.3万亿美元、却长期维持约200倍前瞻市盈率的公司。他认为，特斯拉的多空双方目前均无法迫使对方认输：若其承诺的无监督自动驾驶功能能够按预期实现并安全扩展，多头将占据优势；反之，若发生事故或技术被8-10家竞争对手同质化，空头则将胜出。
这一观点凸显了特斯拉当前估值的极端性，其股价已充分定价了自动驾驶技术的成功。对投资者而言，这意味着特斯拉的股价波动将高度依赖FSD等技术的实际进展和监管反馈。若技术落地顺利，高估值或可维持；但任何安全事故或技术普及都可能引发估值大幅回调。同时，这也反映了市场对电动车企未来盈利模式的深层分歧，即硬件销售之外，软件和服务收入能否成为新的增长引擎。
原文摘要
I have never in my career seen a company with this high a market cap ($1.3 trillion) trade at his level of forward P/E (200x) for so long. Neither $TSLA bulls nor bears can get the other to capitulate: The bulls have the edge if the promised product (unsupervised autonomy) works as intended and the product scales without safety monitors. If there are accidents or injuries, or if the tech becomes commoditized (8-10 competitors match the tech) the bears will prevail. [QT @RandyWKirk1]: In your experience, Gary, has there ever been a company this large with this kind of PE and sustained over t